Titulo:

Análisis parabólico de la prevalencia al consumo de cannabis
.

Sumario:

Objetivo: representar la prevalencia al consumo del cannabis por gramo en hierba y establecer escenarios mediante parábolas. Metodología: La propuesta utiliza datos contenidos en el “Informe Mundial de Drogas 2018: crisis de opioides, abuso de medicamentos y niveles récord de opio y cocaína” del mes de junio del 2018. La información demuestra grandes variaciones, en un mercado con prevalente ilegalidad, que limita emplear modelos convencionales, pero establece oportunidad para proponer alternativas como las parábolas. Resultados: estos demuestran que es posible establecer escenarios con mayor y menor volatilidad mediante parábolas. Conclusiones: los escenarios para 2026 con base en la población entre 15 y 64  años indican que e... Ver más

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spelling Análisis parabólico de la prevalencia al consumo de cannabis
Parabolic analysis of the prevalence of cannabis use
Objetivo: representar la prevalencia al consumo del cannabis por gramo en hierba y establecer escenarios mediante parábolas. Metodología: La propuesta utiliza datos contenidos en el “Informe Mundial de Drogas 2018: crisis de opioides, abuso de medicamentos y niveles récord de opio y cocaína” del mes de junio del 2018. La información demuestra grandes variaciones, en un mercado con prevalente ilegalidad, que limita emplear modelos convencionales, pero establece oportunidad para proponer alternativas como las parábolas. Resultados: estos demuestran que es posible establecer escenarios con mayor y menor volatilidad mediante parábolas. Conclusiones: los escenarios para 2026 con base en la población entre 15 y 64  años indican que en África el porcentaje de prevalencia al consumo estaría entre 5,67% y 12,99%, en América la prevalencia se ubicaría entre 8,06% y 9,63%, en Asia estaría entre 1,66% y 2,77%, Europa 5,8% y 6,03% y Oceanía entre 8,57% y 14,59%.
Objective: To represent the prevalence of cannabis use per gram in weed and to establish scenarios through parabolas. Methodology: The proposal uses data contained in the "World Drug Report 2018: Opioid Crisis, drug abuse and record levels of opium and cocaine" from June 2018. The information shows great variations in a market with prevalent illegality which limits the use of conventional models but establishes an opportunity to propose alternatives such as parabolas. Results: The results show that it is possible to establish scenarios with higher and lower volatility using parabolas. Conclusions: the scenarios for 2026 based on the population between 15 and 64 years old indicate that in Africa the prevalence rate of consumption would be between 5.67% and 12.99%, in America it would be between 8.06% and 9.63%, in Asia it would be between 1.66% and 2.77%, in Europe it would be 5.8% and 6.03% and in Oceania it would be between 8.57% and 14.59%.
Lagunas Puls, Sergio
Boggio Vázquez, Juan
cannabis
prevalencia a consumo
parábolas
cannabis
consumption prevalence
parabolas
26
31
Núm. 31 , Año 2021 : Enero - Junio
Artículo de revista
Journal article
2021-01-01T00:00:00Z
2021-01-01T00:00:00Z
2020-01-01
application/pdf
Universidad de Caldas
Cultura y Droga
0122-8455
2590-7840
https://revistasojs.ucaldas.edu.co/index.php/culturaydroga/article/view/4360
10.17151/culdr.2021.26.31.3
https://doi.org/10.17151/culdr.2021.26.31.3
spa
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
46
70
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Ammerman, S., Ryan, S., and Adelman, W. P. (2015). The impact of marijuana policies on youth: clinical, research, and legal update. Pediatrics, 135(3), 769-785. Recuperado de https://weedmyths.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Ammerman_2015_tech-report-cb-and-youth.pdf
Becker, G., Murphy, K., and Grossman, M. (2006). The Market for Illegal Goods: the Case of Drugs. Journal of Political Economy, 114, 38-60. Recuperado de http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?pid=S0124-59962006000200002&script=sci_arttext&tlng=en
Blatz, M., and Friesen, A. (2018). WHAT Canadian communities can learn from Denver, Colorado´s cannabis controls. Placemaking & Prosperity. Case in point 2018 Pot, , 1-7. Recuperado de http://umanitoba.ca/faculties/architecture/media/CP_cip2018_Blatz.pdf
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Brilhante, M. F., Gomes, M. I., and Pestana, D. (2012). Extensions of Verhulst Model in population dynamics and extremes. Chaotic Modelling Simulation, 2(4), 575-591. Recuperado de https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Maria_Gomes17/publication/286900832_Extensions_of_Verhulst_Model_in_Population_Dynamics_and_Extremes/links/566ef8cd08ae52dd6c1270d9.pdf
Burko, L. and Price, R. (2005). Ballistic trajectory: Parabola, ellipse, or what? American Journal of Physics, 73(6), 516-520. Recuperado de https://arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0310049.pdf
Butsic, V., Carah, J. K., Baumann, M., Stephens, C., and Brenner, J. C. (2018). The emergence of cannabis agriculture frontiers as environmental threats. Environmental Research Letters, 13(12), 1-13. Recuperado de https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaeade/pdf
Cerdá, M., and Kilmer, B. (2017). Uruguay’s middle-ground approach to cannabis legalization. International Journal of Drug Policy, 42, 118-120. Recuperado de https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5505872/
Claessens, S. (1990). The debt laffer curve: Some estimates. World Development, 18 (12), 1671-1677. Recuperado de https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Stijn_Claessens/publication/222167565_The_Debt_Laffer_Curve_some_estimates/links/5a001828458515d0706e7141/The-Debt-Laffer-Curve-some-estimates.pdf
Decorte, T., Pardal, M., Queirolo, R., Boidi, M. F., Avilés, C. S., and Franquero, Ò. P. (2017). Regulating Cannabis Social Clubs: A comparative analysis of legal and self-regulatory practices in Spain, Belgium and Uruguay. International Journal of Drug Policy, 43, 44-56. Recuperado de https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8509050/file/8509051
Everett, Y. (2018). A Challenge to Socio-Ecological Resilience: Community Based Resource Management Organizations’ Perceptions and Responses to Cannabis Cultivation in Northern California. Journal of Social Relations, 89-115. Recuperado de https://digitalcommons.humboldt.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1079&context=hjsr
Goodman, S., Leos-Toro, C., and Hammond, D. (2018). Methods to assess cannabis consumption in population surveys: Results of cognitive interviewing. Qualitative health research, 1049732318820523. Recuperado de http://davidhammond. ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Goodman-et-al.-2019-Methods-to-AssessCannabis-Consumption-in-Population-Surveys.pdf
Kaplan, J. D., and Eschker, E. (2018). Estimating the Costs and Benefits from Legalization and Regulation of Adult-Use and Medical Manufactured Cannabis Products in California. EE: Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting. Recuperado de https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/273984/files/Abstracts_18_05_23_19_23_24_51__99_20_65_248_0.pdf
Kilmer, B. (2017). Recreational cannabis—minimizing the health risks from legalization. New England Journal of Medicine, 376(8), 705-707. Recuperado de https://www.chla.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/Kilmer%202017-Recreational%20cannabis%20NEJM.pdf
Kirsch, J. (2018). Taxation and Welfare in the Cannabis Industry: Evidence from Colorado Edibles 2014-2016. Boulder, Colorado: University of Colorado Boulder. Recuperado de https://www.colorado.edu/economics/sites/default/files/attached-files/18-02_-_kirsch.pdf
Laffer, A. B. (2004). The Laffer curve: Past, present, and future. Backgrounder, 1765, 1-16. Recuperado de http://www.nmhd28gop.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/bg1765.pdf
Leung, J., Chiu, C. Y., Stjepanović, D., and Hall, W. (2018). Has the legalisation of medical and recreational cannabis use in the USA affected the prevalence of cannabis use and cannabis use disorders? Current Addiction Reports, 5(4), 403-417. Recuperado de https://ndarc.med.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/Ms%20Vivian%20Chiu%20-%20poster.pdf
Los, C. A. (2000). Visualization of chaos for finance majors. Australia: School of Economics, University of Adelaide. Recuperado de https://econwpa.ub.unimuenchen.de/econ-wp/fin/papers/0409/0409035.pdf
Mahamad, S., and Hammond, D. (2019). Retail price and availability of illicit cannabis in Canada. Addictive behaviors, 90, 402-408. Recuperado de http://davidhammond.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2018-Illicit-CannabisPrices-in-Canada-Addic-Beh-Mahamad-Hammond-2.pdf
Nakielski, J. (2014). Geometry of shoot apical dome and distribution of growth rates. Acta Societatis Botanicorum Poloniae, 389-402. Recuperado de https://pbsociety.org.pl/journals/index.php/asbp/article/view/asbp.1982.036/2737
Neaigus, A., Gyarmathy, V., Miller, M., Frajzyngier, V., Friedman, S., and Des Jarlais, D. (2006). Transitions to injecting drug use among noninjecting heroin users: social network influence and individual susceptibility. JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 41(4), 493-503. Recuperado de https://www.researchgate.net/publication/7129573_Transitions_to_injecting_drug_use_among_noninjecting_heroin_users_-_Social_network_influence_and_individual_susceptibility
Newman, J., and Lay, T. (2018). Medical Cannabis Bike Tour funds glioblastoma clinical trial. Health Europa Quarterly, (5). Recuperado de http://sro.sussex. ac.uk/id/eprint/75043/1/Medical%20Cannabis%20Bike%20Tour%20funds%20glioblastoma%20clinical%20trial.pdf
Rehm, J., and Fischer, B. (2015). Cannabis legalization with strict regulation, the overall superior policy option for public health. Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics, 97(6), 541-544. Recuperado de https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jurgen_Rehm/publication/272186219_Cannabis_Legalization_With_Strict_Regulation_the_Overall_Superior_Policy_Option_for_Public_ Health/links/5c2cb542a6fdccfc70780459/Cannabis-Legalization-With-StrictRegulation-the-Overal
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https://revistasojs.ucaldas.edu.co/index.php/culturaydroga/article/download/4360/4008
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Text
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institution UNIVERSIDAD DE CALDAS
thumbnail https://nuevo.metarevistas.org/UNIVERSIDADDECALDAS/logo.png
country_str Colombia
collection Cultura y Droga
title Análisis parabólico de la prevalencia al consumo de cannabis
spellingShingle Análisis parabólico de la prevalencia al consumo de cannabis
Lagunas Puls, Sergio
Boggio Vázquez, Juan
cannabis
prevalencia a consumo
parábolas
cannabis
consumption prevalence
parabolas
title_short Análisis parabólico de la prevalencia al consumo de cannabis
title_full Análisis parabólico de la prevalencia al consumo de cannabis
title_fullStr Análisis parabólico de la prevalencia al consumo de cannabis
title_full_unstemmed Análisis parabólico de la prevalencia al consumo de cannabis
title_sort análisis parabólico de la prevalencia al consumo de cannabis
title_eng Parabolic analysis of the prevalence of cannabis use
description Objetivo: representar la prevalencia al consumo del cannabis por gramo en hierba y establecer escenarios mediante parábolas. Metodología: La propuesta utiliza datos contenidos en el “Informe Mundial de Drogas 2018: crisis de opioides, abuso de medicamentos y niveles récord de opio y cocaína” del mes de junio del 2018. La información demuestra grandes variaciones, en un mercado con prevalente ilegalidad, que limita emplear modelos convencionales, pero establece oportunidad para proponer alternativas como las parábolas. Resultados: estos demuestran que es posible establecer escenarios con mayor y menor volatilidad mediante parábolas. Conclusiones: los escenarios para 2026 con base en la población entre 15 y 64  años indican que en África el porcentaje de prevalencia al consumo estaría entre 5,67% y 12,99%, en América la prevalencia se ubicaría entre 8,06% y 9,63%, en Asia estaría entre 1,66% y 2,77%, Europa 5,8% y 6,03% y Oceanía entre 8,57% y 14,59%.
description_eng Objective: To represent the prevalence of cannabis use per gram in weed and to establish scenarios through parabolas. Methodology: The proposal uses data contained in the "World Drug Report 2018: Opioid Crisis, drug abuse and record levels of opium and cocaine" from June 2018. The information shows great variations in a market with prevalent illegality which limits the use of conventional models but establishes an opportunity to propose alternatives such as parabolas. Results: The results show that it is possible to establish scenarios with higher and lower volatility using parabolas. Conclusions: the scenarios for 2026 based on the population between 15 and 64 years old indicate that in Africa the prevalence rate of consumption would be between 5.67% and 12.99%, in America it would be between 8.06% and 9.63%, in Asia it would be between 1.66% and 2.77%, in Europe it would be 5.8% and 6.03% and in Oceania it would be between 8.57% and 14.59%.
author Lagunas Puls, Sergio
Boggio Vázquez, Juan
author_facet Lagunas Puls, Sergio
Boggio Vázquez, Juan
topicspa_str_mv cannabis
prevalencia a consumo
parábolas
topic cannabis
prevalencia a consumo
parábolas
cannabis
consumption prevalence
parabolas
topic_facet cannabis
prevalencia a consumo
parábolas
cannabis
consumption prevalence
parabolas
citationvolume 26
citationissue 31
citationedition Núm. 31 , Año 2021 : Enero - Junio
publisher Universidad de Caldas
ispartofjournal Cultura y Droga
source https://revistasojs.ucaldas.edu.co/index.php/culturaydroga/article/view/4360
language spa
format Article
rights https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
references Amlung, M., Reed, D. D., Morris, V., Aston, E. R., Metrik, J., and MacKillop, J. (2019). Price elasticity of illegal versus legal cannabis: a behavioral economic substitutability analysis. Addiction, 114(1), 112-118. Recuperado de https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/add.14437
Ammerman, S., Ryan, S., and Adelman, W. P. (2015). The impact of marijuana policies on youth: clinical, research, and legal update. Pediatrics, 135(3), 769-785. Recuperado de https://weedmyths.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Ammerman_2015_tech-report-cb-and-youth.pdf
Becker, G., Murphy, K., and Grossman, M. (2006). The Market for Illegal Goods: the Case of Drugs. Journal of Political Economy, 114, 38-60. Recuperado de http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?pid=S0124-59962006000200002&script=sci_arttext&tlng=en
Blatz, M., and Friesen, A. (2018). WHAT Canadian communities can learn from Denver, Colorado´s cannabis controls. Placemaking & Prosperity. Case in point 2018 Pot, , 1-7. Recuperado de http://umanitoba.ca/faculties/architecture/media/CP_cip2018_Blatz.pdf
Bone, M., Potter, G., and Klein, A. (2018). Introduction: cultivation, medication, activism and cannabis policy. Drugs and Alcohol Today, 18(2), 73-79. Recuperado de https://lra.le.ac.uk/bitstream/2381/42583/2/PDF_Proof.PDF%20introduction.PDF
Brilhante, M. F., Gomes, M. I., and Pestana, D. (2012). Extensions of Verhulst Model in population dynamics and extremes. Chaotic Modelling Simulation, 2(4), 575-591. Recuperado de https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Maria_Gomes17/publication/286900832_Extensions_of_Verhulst_Model_in_Population_Dynamics_and_Extremes/links/566ef8cd08ae52dd6c1270d9.pdf
Burko, L. and Price, R. (2005). Ballistic trajectory: Parabola, ellipse, or what? American Journal of Physics, 73(6), 516-520. Recuperado de https://arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0310049.pdf
Butsic, V., Carah, J. K., Baumann, M., Stephens, C., and Brenner, J. C. (2018). The emergence of cannabis agriculture frontiers as environmental threats. Environmental Research Letters, 13(12), 1-13. Recuperado de https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaeade/pdf
Cerdá, M., and Kilmer, B. (2017). Uruguay’s middle-ground approach to cannabis legalization. International Journal of Drug Policy, 42, 118-120. Recuperado de https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5505872/
Claessens, S. (1990). The debt laffer curve: Some estimates. World Development, 18 (12), 1671-1677. Recuperado de https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Stijn_Claessens/publication/222167565_The_Debt_Laffer_Curve_some_estimates/links/5a001828458515d0706e7141/The-Debt-Laffer-Curve-some-estimates.pdf
Decorte, T., Pardal, M., Queirolo, R., Boidi, M. F., Avilés, C. S., and Franquero, Ò. P. (2017). Regulating Cannabis Social Clubs: A comparative analysis of legal and self-regulatory practices in Spain, Belgium and Uruguay. International Journal of Drug Policy, 43, 44-56. Recuperado de https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8509050/file/8509051
Everett, Y. (2018). A Challenge to Socio-Ecological Resilience: Community Based Resource Management Organizations’ Perceptions and Responses to Cannabis Cultivation in Northern California. Journal of Social Relations, 89-115. Recuperado de https://digitalcommons.humboldt.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1079&context=hjsr
Goodman, S., Leos-Toro, C., and Hammond, D. (2018). Methods to assess cannabis consumption in population surveys: Results of cognitive interviewing. Qualitative health research, 1049732318820523. Recuperado de http://davidhammond. ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Goodman-et-al.-2019-Methods-to-AssessCannabis-Consumption-in-Population-Surveys.pdf
Kaplan, J. D., and Eschker, E. (2018). Estimating the Costs and Benefits from Legalization and Regulation of Adult-Use and Medical Manufactured Cannabis Products in California. EE: Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting. Recuperado de https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/273984/files/Abstracts_18_05_23_19_23_24_51__99_20_65_248_0.pdf
Kilmer, B. (2017). Recreational cannabis—minimizing the health risks from legalization. New England Journal of Medicine, 376(8), 705-707. Recuperado de https://www.chla.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/Kilmer%202017-Recreational%20cannabis%20NEJM.pdf
Kirsch, J. (2018). Taxation and Welfare in the Cannabis Industry: Evidence from Colorado Edibles 2014-2016. Boulder, Colorado: University of Colorado Boulder. Recuperado de https://www.colorado.edu/economics/sites/default/files/attached-files/18-02_-_kirsch.pdf
Laffer, A. B. (2004). The Laffer curve: Past, present, and future. Backgrounder, 1765, 1-16. Recuperado de http://www.nmhd28gop.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/bg1765.pdf
Leung, J., Chiu, C. Y., Stjepanović, D., and Hall, W. (2018). Has the legalisation of medical and recreational cannabis use in the USA affected the prevalence of cannabis use and cannabis use disorders? Current Addiction Reports, 5(4), 403-417. Recuperado de https://ndarc.med.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/Ms%20Vivian%20Chiu%20-%20poster.pdf
Los, C. A. (2000). Visualization of chaos for finance majors. Australia: School of Economics, University of Adelaide. Recuperado de https://econwpa.ub.unimuenchen.de/econ-wp/fin/papers/0409/0409035.pdf
Mahamad, S., and Hammond, D. (2019). Retail price and availability of illicit cannabis in Canada. Addictive behaviors, 90, 402-408. Recuperado de http://davidhammond.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2018-Illicit-CannabisPrices-in-Canada-Addic-Beh-Mahamad-Hammond-2.pdf
Nakielski, J. (2014). Geometry of shoot apical dome and distribution of growth rates. Acta Societatis Botanicorum Poloniae, 389-402. Recuperado de https://pbsociety.org.pl/journals/index.php/asbp/article/view/asbp.1982.036/2737
Neaigus, A., Gyarmathy, V., Miller, M., Frajzyngier, V., Friedman, S., and Des Jarlais, D. (2006). Transitions to injecting drug use among noninjecting heroin users: social network influence and individual susceptibility. JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 41(4), 493-503. Recuperado de https://www.researchgate.net/publication/7129573_Transitions_to_injecting_drug_use_among_noninjecting_heroin_users_-_Social_network_influence_and_individual_susceptibility
Newman, J., and Lay, T. (2018). Medical Cannabis Bike Tour funds glioblastoma clinical trial. Health Europa Quarterly, (5). Recuperado de http://sro.sussex. ac.uk/id/eprint/75043/1/Medical%20Cannabis%20Bike%20Tour%20funds%20glioblastoma%20clinical%20trial.pdf
Rehm, J., and Fischer, B. (2015). Cannabis legalization with strict regulation, the overall superior policy option for public health. Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics, 97(6), 541-544. Recuperado de https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jurgen_Rehm/publication/272186219_Cannabis_Legalization_With_Strict_Regulation_the_Overall_Superior_Policy_Option_for_Public_ Health/links/5c2cb542a6fdccfc70780459/Cannabis-Legalization-With-StrictRegulation-the-Overal
Rhodes, W., Johnston, P., Han, S., McMullen, Q., and Hozik, L. (2000). Illicit drugs: Price elasticity of demand and supply. USA: Abt Associates.
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