Titulo:
La estructura fiscal óptima desde la perspectiva del crecimiento del PIB
.
Sumario:
El multiplicador de impuestos en macroeconomía supone una relación negativa entre el volumen de ingresos tributarios de un país y su PIB. Sin embargo, también puede ser relevante para el crecimiento del PIB si el mismo volumen de carga tributaria se recauda en una estructura diferente. ¿Puede el gobierno fiscal estimular el crecimiento del PIB reestructurando los ingresos tributarios? El presente estudio analiza el vínculo entre la tasa de crecimiento del PIB y la estructura de los ingresos tributarios. Una base de datos contiene datos de 25 países de la UE que son economías abiertas en el mercado único europeo. El período comienza en 1996 y dura hasta 2018. Para la clasificación fiscal se utiliza la clasificación de Eurostat. Se aplican pr... Ver más
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Gábor Kutasi - 2023
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La estructura fiscal óptima desde la perspectiva del crecimiento del PIB The Optimal Tax Structure from GDP-growth Perspective El multiplicador de impuestos en macroeconomía supone una relación negativa entre el volumen de ingresos tributarios de un país y su PIB. Sin embargo, también puede ser relevante para el crecimiento del PIB si el mismo volumen de carga tributaria se recauda en una estructura diferente. ¿Puede el gobierno fiscal estimular el crecimiento del PIB reestructurando los ingresos tributarios? El presente estudio analiza el vínculo entre la tasa de crecimiento del PIB y la estructura de los ingresos tributarios. Una base de datos contiene datos de 25 países de la UE que son economías abiertas en el mercado único europeo. El período comienza en 1996 y dura hasta 2018. Para la clasificación fiscal se utiliza la clasificación de Eurostat. Se aplican pruebas dinámicas de GMM para ecuaciones del PIB basadas en el enfoque de gasto y producción y se amplían con determinantes de categorías impositivas. Se concluye que la estructura impositiva basada en impuestos al consumidor sobre la producción y el impuesto a la renta puede apoyar el crecimiento económico, mientras que un mayor peso de la contribución social es un factor destructivo para la expansión de los ingresos. La recomendación de política es reponderar la estructura tributaria hacia impuestos indirectos desde impuestos directos si el crecimiento económico es una preferencia en el sistema tributario en una economía abierta orientada al comercio. Como novedad de la investigación, se encuentra la aplicación de la versión Arellano-Bond de la prueba Dynamic GMM, resultados comparables para los enfoques de Solow-Swan y Cobb-Douglas aumentados, la composición de la base de datos, la falsificación y verificación de afirmaciones de la literatura existente. The tax multiplier in macroeconomics assumes a negative relationship between the volume of tax revenue in a country and its GDP. However, it may also be relevant to GDP growth whether the same volume of tax burden is levied in a different structure. Can the fiscal government stimulate the GDP growth by restructuring the tax revenues? The following study analyses the linkage between GDP growth rate and the structure of tax revenues. A database contains data from 25 EU countries which are open economies in the European single market. The period starts in 1996 and lasts until 2018. The Eurostat classification is used for tax types. Dynamic GMM tests are applied for GDP equations based on expenditure and output approach and extended with taxation category determinants. The conclusions are that tax structure based on consumer taxes on production and income tax can support the economic growth, meanwhile higher weight of social contribution is a destructive factor for income expansion. The policy recommendation is to reweight the tax structure toward indirect taxes from direct taxes if economic growth is a preference in the tax system in a trade-oriented open economy. Novelty of the research: Application of Arellano-Bond version of Dynamic GMM test, comparable results for Solow-Swan and augmented Cobb-Douglas approaches, the composition of database, the falsification and verification of statements of the existing literature. Kutasi, Gábor Marton, Ádám ingresos fiscales crecimiento económico Métodos Generalizados de Momentos modelo Panel Unión Europea tax revenue economic growth Generalized Methods of Moments Panel model European Union 16 1 Artículo de revista Journal article 2024-01-31T00:00:00Z 2024-01-31T00:00:00Z 2024-01-31 text/html application/pdf text/xml Universidad Católica de Colombia Revista Finanzas y Política Económica 2248-6046 2011-7663 https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/view/5043 10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.v16.n1.2024.6 https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.v16.n1.2024.6 eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 Gábor Kutasi - 2023 Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0. 121 143 Acosta-Ormaechea, S., & Morozumi, A. (2021). The value-added tax and growth: design matters. International Tax Public Finance, 28, 1211-1241. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-021-09681-2 Ahmad, S., & Sial, M. (2016). Taxes and economic growth: An empirical analysis of Pakistan. European Journal of Business and Social Sciences, 5(1)16-29. https://doi.org/10.21859/eulawrev-08062 Alfò, M., Carbonari, L., & Trovato, G. (2023). On the effects of taxation on growth: An empirical assessment. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 27(5), 1289-1318. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100522000219 Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968 Arnold, J. (2008). Do Tax Structures Affect Aggregate Economic Growth?: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries. OECD Working Papers, 643. https://doi.org/10.1787/236001777843 Arnold, J., Bassanini, A., & Scarpetta, S. (2007). Solow or Lucas?: Testing Growth Models Using Panel Data from OECD Countries. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 592. https://doi.org/10.1787/028487061153 Bania, N., Gray, J., & Stone, J. (2007). Growth, taxes and government expenditures: Growth hills for U.S. states. National Tax Journal, 60(2), 193-204. https://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2007.2.02 Barrios, S., & Schaechter, A., (2008). The quality of public finances and economic growth. European Economy, Economic Papers, 337. https://doi.org/10.2765/88752 Barro, R.J. (1990). Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 103-105. https://doi.org/10.1086/261726 Cassette, A., & Paty, S. (2008). Tax competition among Eastern and Western European countries: With whom do countries compete? Economic Systems, 32(4), 307-325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2008.06.003 Elekes A., & Halmai, P. (2019). How to overcome the crisis of the European growth potential? The role of the government. European Journal of Comparative Economics, 16(2), 313-334. https://doi.org/10.25428/1824-2979/201902-313-334 Elshani, A., & Ahmeti, S. (2017). The Effect of Progressive Tax on Economic Growth Empirical Evidence from European OECD Countries. International Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(4) 18-25. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323342221_The_Effect_of_Progressive_Tax_on_Economic_Growth_Empirical_Evidence_from_European_OECD_Countries Engen, E., & Skinner, J. (1996). Taxation and economic growth. National Tax Journal, 49(4), 617-642. https://doi.org/10.1086/NTJ41789231 Fidrmuc, J., & Degler, M. (2019). Temporal and Spatial Dependence of Interregional Risk Sharing: Evidence from Russia. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 25(1), 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100518000706 Gale, W., Krupkin, A., & Rueben, K. (2015). The Relationship between Taxes and Growth: New Evidence. National Tax Journal, 68(4), 919-942. https://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2015.4.02 Gechert, S., & Heimberger, P. (2022). Do corporate tax cuts boost economic growth? European Economic Review, 147, 104157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104157 Gunter, S., Riera-Crichton, D., Vegh, V., & Vuletin, G. (2019). Non-Linear Effects of Tax Changes on Output: The Role of the Initial Level of Taxation. NBER Working Paper, 26570. http://www.nber.org/papers/w26570 Kalaš, B., Mirović, V., & Andrašić, J. (2017). Estimating the Impact of Taxes on the Economic Growth in the United States. Economic Themes, 55(4), 481-499. https://doi.org/10.1515/ethemes-2017-0027 Kalaš, B., Mirović, V., & Milenkovic, N.B. (2018). The relationship between taxes and economic growth: Evidence from Serbia and Croatia. The European Journal of Applied Economics, 15(2), 17-28. https://doi.org/10.5937/EJAE15-18056 Kneller, R., Bleaney, M. F., & Gemmell, N. (1999). Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries. Journal of Public Economics, 74(2), 171-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0047-2727(99)00022-5 Kutasi, G., & Marton, Á. (2020). The long-term impact of public expenditures on GDP-growth. Society and Economy, 42(4), 403-419. https://doi.org/10.1556/204.2020.00018 Lee, Y., & Gordon, R. (2005). Tax Structure and Economic Growth. Journal of Public Economics, 89(5-6), 1027-1043. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2004.07.002 Levin, A., Lin, C.-F., & Chu, C.-S. J. (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7 Ljungqvist, A., & Smolyansky, M. (2018). To Cut or Not to Cut? On The Impact of Corporate Taxes on Employment and Income. NBER Working Paper 20753. https://www.nber.org/papers/w20753 Macek, R. (2014). The Impact of Taxation on Economic Growth: Case Study of OECD Countries. Review of Economic Perspectives, 14(4), 309-328. https://doi.org/10.1515/revecp-2015-0002 McNabb, K. (2018). Tax Structures and Economic Growth: New Evidence from the Government Revenue Dataset. Journal of International Development, 30(2), 173-205. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3345 Mertens, K., & Olea, J.L.M. (2018). Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133(4) 1803-1884. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy008 Myles, G. (2000). Taxation and Economic Growth. Fiscal Studies, 21(1) 141-168. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-5890.2000.tb00583.x Rhee, T, (2012). Macroeconomic Effects of Progressive Taxation, https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2013/retrieve.php?pdfid=394 Stoilova, D. (2017). Tax structure and economic growth: Evidence from the European Union. Contaduría y Administración, 62(3), 1041-1057. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cya.2017.04.006 Widmalm, F. (2001) Tax Structure and Growth: Are Some Taxes Better Than Others? Public Choice, 107(3-4), 199-219. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010340017288 Zidar, O. (2019). Tax Cuts for Whom? Heterogenous Effects of Income Tax Changes on Growth and Employment. Journal of Political Economy, 127(3), 1437-1472. https://doi.org/10.1086/701424 https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/5043/5060 https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/5043/4976 https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/5043/5238 info:eu-repo/semantics/article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1 http://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ART info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 Text Publication |
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UNIVERSIDAD CATÓLICA DE COLOMBIA |
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Colombia |
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Revista Finanzas y Política Económica |
| title |
La estructura fiscal óptima desde la perspectiva del crecimiento del PIB |
| spellingShingle |
La estructura fiscal óptima desde la perspectiva del crecimiento del PIB Kutasi, Gábor Marton, Ádám ingresos fiscales crecimiento económico Métodos Generalizados de Momentos modelo Panel Unión Europea tax revenue economic growth Generalized Methods of Moments Panel model European Union |
| title_short |
La estructura fiscal óptima desde la perspectiva del crecimiento del PIB |
| title_full |
La estructura fiscal óptima desde la perspectiva del crecimiento del PIB |
| title_fullStr |
La estructura fiscal óptima desde la perspectiva del crecimiento del PIB |
| title_full_unstemmed |
La estructura fiscal óptima desde la perspectiva del crecimiento del PIB |
| title_sort |
la estructura fiscal óptima desde la perspectiva del crecimiento del pib |
| title_eng |
The Optimal Tax Structure from GDP-growth Perspective |
| description |
El multiplicador de impuestos en macroeconomía supone una relación negativa entre el volumen de ingresos tributarios de un país y su PIB. Sin embargo, también puede ser relevante para el crecimiento del PIB si el mismo volumen de carga tributaria se recauda en una estructura diferente. ¿Puede el gobierno fiscal estimular el crecimiento del PIB reestructurando los ingresos tributarios? El presente estudio analiza el vínculo entre la tasa de crecimiento del PIB y la estructura de los ingresos tributarios. Una base de datos contiene datos de 25 países de la UE que son economías abiertas en el mercado único europeo. El período comienza en 1996 y dura hasta 2018. Para la clasificación fiscal se utiliza la clasificación de Eurostat. Se aplican pruebas dinámicas de GMM para ecuaciones del PIB basadas en el enfoque de gasto y producción y se amplían con determinantes de categorías impositivas. Se concluye que la estructura impositiva basada en impuestos al consumidor sobre la producción y el impuesto a la renta puede apoyar el crecimiento económico, mientras que un mayor peso de la contribución social es un factor destructivo para la expansión de los ingresos. La recomendación de política es reponderar la estructura tributaria hacia impuestos indirectos desde impuestos directos si el crecimiento económico es una preferencia en el sistema tributario en una economía abierta orientada al comercio. Como novedad de la investigación, se encuentra la aplicación de la versión Arellano-Bond de la prueba Dynamic GMM, resultados comparables para los enfoques de Solow-Swan y Cobb-Douglas aumentados, la composición de la base de datos, la falsificación y verificación de afirmaciones de la literatura existente.
|
| description_eng |
The tax multiplier in macroeconomics assumes a negative relationship between the volume of tax revenue in a country and its GDP. However, it may also be relevant to GDP growth whether the same volume of tax burden is levied in a different structure. Can the fiscal government stimulate the GDP growth by restructuring the tax revenues? The following study analyses the linkage between GDP growth rate and the structure of tax revenues. A database contains data from 25 EU countries which are open economies in the European single market. The period starts in 1996 and lasts until 2018. The Eurostat classification is used for tax types. Dynamic GMM tests are applied for GDP equations based on expenditure and output approach and extended with taxation category determinants. The conclusions are that tax structure based on consumer taxes on production and income tax can support the economic growth, meanwhile higher weight of social contribution is a destructive factor for income expansion. The policy recommendation is to reweight the tax structure toward indirect taxes from direct taxes if economic growth is a preference in the tax system in a trade-oriented open economy. Novelty of the research: Application of Arellano-Bond version of Dynamic GMM test, comparable results for Solow-Swan and augmented Cobb-Douglas approaches, the composition of database, the falsification and verification of statements of the existing literature.
|
| author |
Kutasi, Gábor Marton, Ádám |
| author_facet |
Kutasi, Gábor Marton, Ádám |
| topicspa_str_mv |
ingresos fiscales crecimiento económico Métodos Generalizados de Momentos modelo Panel Unión Europea |
| topic |
ingresos fiscales crecimiento económico Métodos Generalizados de Momentos modelo Panel Unión Europea tax revenue economic growth Generalized Methods of Moments Panel model European Union |
| topic_facet |
ingresos fiscales crecimiento económico Métodos Generalizados de Momentos modelo Panel Unión Europea tax revenue economic growth Generalized Methods of Moments Panel model European Union |
| citationvolume |
16 |
| citationissue |
1 |
| publisher |
Universidad Católica de Colombia |
| ispartofjournal |
Revista Finanzas y Política Económica |
| source |
https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/view/5043 |
| language |
eng |
| format |
Article |
| rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 Gábor Kutasi - 2023 Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0. info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| references_eng |
Acosta-Ormaechea, S., & Morozumi, A. (2021). The value-added tax and growth: design matters. International Tax Public Finance, 28, 1211-1241. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-021-09681-2 Ahmad, S., & Sial, M. (2016). Taxes and economic growth: An empirical analysis of Pakistan. European Journal of Business and Social Sciences, 5(1)16-29. https://doi.org/10.21859/eulawrev-08062 Alfò, M., Carbonari, L., & Trovato, G. (2023). On the effects of taxation on growth: An empirical assessment. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 27(5), 1289-1318. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100522000219 Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968 Arnold, J. (2008). Do Tax Structures Affect Aggregate Economic Growth?: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries. OECD Working Papers, 643. https://doi.org/10.1787/236001777843 Arnold, J., Bassanini, A., & Scarpetta, S. (2007). Solow or Lucas?: Testing Growth Models Using Panel Data from OECD Countries. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 592. https://doi.org/10.1787/028487061153 Bania, N., Gray, J., & Stone, J. (2007). Growth, taxes and government expenditures: Growth hills for U.S. states. National Tax Journal, 60(2), 193-204. https://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2007.2.02 Barrios, S., & Schaechter, A., (2008). The quality of public finances and economic growth. European Economy, Economic Papers, 337. https://doi.org/10.2765/88752 Barro, R.J. (1990). Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 103-105. https://doi.org/10.1086/261726 Cassette, A., & Paty, S. (2008). Tax competition among Eastern and Western European countries: With whom do countries compete? Economic Systems, 32(4), 307-325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2008.06.003 Elekes A., & Halmai, P. (2019). How to overcome the crisis of the European growth potential? The role of the government. European Journal of Comparative Economics, 16(2), 313-334. https://doi.org/10.25428/1824-2979/201902-313-334 Elshani, A., & Ahmeti, S. (2017). The Effect of Progressive Tax on Economic Growth Empirical Evidence from European OECD Countries. International Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(4) 18-25. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323342221_The_Effect_of_Progressive_Tax_on_Economic_Growth_Empirical_Evidence_from_European_OECD_Countries Engen, E., & Skinner, J. (1996). Taxation and economic growth. National Tax Journal, 49(4), 617-642. https://doi.org/10.1086/NTJ41789231 Fidrmuc, J., & Degler, M. (2019). Temporal and Spatial Dependence of Interregional Risk Sharing: Evidence from Russia. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 25(1), 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100518000706 Gale, W., Krupkin, A., & Rueben, K. (2015). The Relationship between Taxes and Growth: New Evidence. National Tax Journal, 68(4), 919-942. https://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2015.4.02 Gechert, S., & Heimberger, P. (2022). Do corporate tax cuts boost economic growth? European Economic Review, 147, 104157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104157 Gunter, S., Riera-Crichton, D., Vegh, V., & Vuletin, G. (2019). Non-Linear Effects of Tax Changes on Output: The Role of the Initial Level of Taxation. NBER Working Paper, 26570. http://www.nber.org/papers/w26570 Kalaš, B., Mirović, V., & Andrašić, J. (2017). Estimating the Impact of Taxes on the Economic Growth in the United States. Economic Themes, 55(4), 481-499. https://doi.org/10.1515/ethemes-2017-0027 Kalaš, B., Mirović, V., & Milenkovic, N.B. (2018). The relationship between taxes and economic growth: Evidence from Serbia and Croatia. The European Journal of Applied Economics, 15(2), 17-28. https://doi.org/10.5937/EJAE15-18056 Kneller, R., Bleaney, M. F., & Gemmell, N. (1999). Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries. Journal of Public Economics, 74(2), 171-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0047-2727(99)00022-5 Kutasi, G., & Marton, Á. (2020). The long-term impact of public expenditures on GDP-growth. Society and Economy, 42(4), 403-419. https://doi.org/10.1556/204.2020.00018 Lee, Y., & Gordon, R. (2005). Tax Structure and Economic Growth. Journal of Public Economics, 89(5-6), 1027-1043. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2004.07.002 Levin, A., Lin, C.-F., & Chu, C.-S. J. (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7 Ljungqvist, A., & Smolyansky, M. (2018). To Cut or Not to Cut? On The Impact of Corporate Taxes on Employment and Income. NBER Working Paper 20753. https://www.nber.org/papers/w20753 Macek, R. (2014). The Impact of Taxation on Economic Growth: Case Study of OECD Countries. Review of Economic Perspectives, 14(4), 309-328. https://doi.org/10.1515/revecp-2015-0002 McNabb, K. (2018). Tax Structures and Economic Growth: New Evidence from the Government Revenue Dataset. Journal of International Development, 30(2), 173-205. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3345 Mertens, K., & Olea, J.L.M. (2018). Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133(4) 1803-1884. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy008 Myles, G. (2000). Taxation and Economic Growth. Fiscal Studies, 21(1) 141-168. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-5890.2000.tb00583.x Rhee, T, (2012). Macroeconomic Effects of Progressive Taxation, https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2013/retrieve.php?pdfid=394 Stoilova, D. (2017). Tax structure and economic growth: Evidence from the European Union. Contaduría y Administración, 62(3), 1041-1057. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cya.2017.04.006 Widmalm, F. (2001) Tax Structure and Growth: Are Some Taxes Better Than Others? Public Choice, 107(3-4), 199-219. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010340017288 Zidar, O. (2019). Tax Cuts for Whom? Heterogenous Effects of Income Tax Changes on Growth and Employment. Journal of Political Economy, 127(3), 1437-1472. https://doi.org/10.1086/701424 |
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