Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones.
Titulo:

Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones.
.

Sumario:

En este artículo se utilizan modelos dinámicos con datos de panel para estudiar los determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México con 39 socios comerciales en el periodo 1990-2016. La literatura señala al ingreso y al tipo de cambio real como las variables independientes clave. Asimismo, se incluye la composición de las exportaciones como variable explicativa (algo ignorado previamente). Los resultados difieren de otras investigaciones: no se encuentra evidencia robusta sobre el efecto del ingreso, hay evidencia de la importancia del tipo de cambio real y se encuentra un nexo positivo, aunque débil, con las exportaciones consistentes de bienes de alta tecnología, lo cual explica parcialmente el persistente déficit comercial de Méx... Ver más

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Revista Finanzas y Política Económica

2248-6046

2011-7663

Carrasco, Carlos Alberto

Tovar García, Edgar Demetrio

UNIVERSIDAD CATÓLICA DE COLOMBIA

10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.2.3

11

2019-07-01

259

276

Colombia

Balance comercial bilateral

Composición de las exportaciones

Industrias de alta intensidad tecnológica

México.

Balança comercial bilateral

Composição das exportações

Indústrias de alta tecnologia

México

Carlos Alberto Carrasco, Edgar Demetrio Tovar García - 2019

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id metarevistapublica_ucatolica_revistafinanzasypoliticaeconomica_16_article_2203
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spelling Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones.
Determinants of Mexico’s bilateral trade balance : income, exchange rate, and export composition.
En este artículo se utilizan modelos dinámicos con datos de panel para estudiar los determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México con 39 socios comerciales en el periodo 1990-2016. La literatura señala al ingreso y al tipo de cambio real como las variables independientes clave. Asimismo, se incluye la composición de las exportaciones como variable explicativa (algo ignorado previamente). Los resultados difieren de otras investigaciones: no se encuentra evidencia robusta sobre el efecto del ingreso, hay evidencia de la importancia del tipo de cambio real y se encuentra un nexo positivo, aunque débil, con las exportaciones consistentes de bienes de alta tecnología, lo cual explica parcialmente el persistente déficit comercial de México.
Using dynamic panel data models, this paper studies the determinants of Mexico’s bilateral trade balance with 39 trade partners from 1990 to 2016. The literature points to income and real exchange rate as key independent variables. This study includes export composition as an explanatory variable (a previously neglected aspect). Results differ from other researches: there is no robust evidence on the effect of income; there is evidence of the association between bilateral balance and real exchange rate; and there is a weak positive link with exports consisting of high-tech goods, partially explaining Mexico’s persistent trade deficit. 
Carrasco, Carlos Alberto
Tovar García, Edgar Demetrio
Export composition
High-tech industries
Mexico
Bilateral trade balance
Balance comercial bilateral
Composición de las exportaciones
Industrias de alta intensidad tecnológica
México.
Balança comercial bilateral
Composição das exportações
Indústrias de alta tecnologia
México
11
2
Artículo de revista
Journal article
2019-07-01T00:00:00Z
2019-07-01T00:00:00Z
2019-07-01
application/pdf
text/html
text/xml
Universidad Católica de Colombia
Revista Finanzas y Política Económica
2248-6046
2011-7663
https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/view/2203
10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.2.3
https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.2.3
spa
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Carlos Alberto Carrasco, Edgar Demetrio Tovar García - 2019
259
276
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Arellano, M. y Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968
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Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Hegerty, S. W. y Xu, J. (2013). Exchange-rate volatility and US-Hong Kong industry trade: is there evidence of a 'third country' effect? Applied Economics, 45(18), 2629-2651. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/twec.12521
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. y Saha, S. (2017). Asymmetric response of the US-India trade balance to exchange rate changes: Evidence from 68 industries. The World Economy, 40(10), 2226-2254. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0307-3378.2006.00247.x
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Text
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institution UNIVERSIDAD CATÓLICA DE COLOMBIA
thumbnail https://nuevo.metarevistas.org/UNIVERSIDADCATOLICADECOLOMBIA/logo.png
country_str Colombia
collection Revista Finanzas y Política Económica
title Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones.
spellingShingle Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones.
Carrasco, Carlos Alberto
Tovar García, Edgar Demetrio
Export composition
High-tech industries
Mexico
Bilateral trade balance
Balance comercial bilateral
Composición de las exportaciones
Industrias de alta intensidad tecnológica
México.
Balança comercial bilateral
Composição das exportações
Indústrias de alta tecnologia
México
title_short Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones.
title_full Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones.
title_fullStr Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones.
title_full_unstemmed Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones.
title_sort determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de méxico : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones.
title_eng Determinants of Mexico’s bilateral trade balance : income, exchange rate, and export composition.
description En este artículo se utilizan modelos dinámicos con datos de panel para estudiar los determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México con 39 socios comerciales en el periodo 1990-2016. La literatura señala al ingreso y al tipo de cambio real como las variables independientes clave. Asimismo, se incluye la composición de las exportaciones como variable explicativa (algo ignorado previamente). Los resultados difieren de otras investigaciones: no se encuentra evidencia robusta sobre el efecto del ingreso, hay evidencia de la importancia del tipo de cambio real y se encuentra un nexo positivo, aunque débil, con las exportaciones consistentes de bienes de alta tecnología, lo cual explica parcialmente el persistente déficit comercial de México.
description_eng Using dynamic panel data models, this paper studies the determinants of Mexico’s bilateral trade balance with 39 trade partners from 1990 to 2016. The literature points to income and real exchange rate as key independent variables. This study includes export composition as an explanatory variable (a previously neglected aspect). Results differ from other researches: there is no robust evidence on the effect of income; there is evidence of the association between bilateral balance and real exchange rate; and there is a weak positive link with exports consisting of high-tech goods, partially explaining Mexico’s persistent trade deficit. 
author Carrasco, Carlos Alberto
Tovar García, Edgar Demetrio
author_facet Carrasco, Carlos Alberto
Tovar García, Edgar Demetrio
topic Export composition
High-tech industries
Mexico
Bilateral trade balance
Balance comercial bilateral
Composición de las exportaciones
Industrias de alta intensidad tecnológica
México.
Balança comercial bilateral
Composição das exportações
Indústrias de alta tecnologia
México
topic_facet Export composition
High-tech industries
Mexico
Bilateral trade balance
Balance comercial bilateral
Composición de las exportaciones
Industrias de alta intensidad tecnológica
México.
Balança comercial bilateral
Composição das exportações
Indústrias de alta tecnologia
México
topicspa_str_mv Balance comercial bilateral
Composición de las exportaciones
Industrias de alta intensidad tecnológica
México.
Balança comercial bilateral
Composição das exportações
Indústrias de alta tecnologia
México
citationvolume 11
citationissue 2
publisher Universidad Católica de Colombia
ispartofjournal Revista Finanzas y Política Económica
source https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/view/2203
language spa
format Article
rights https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Carlos Alberto Carrasco, Edgar Demetrio Tovar García - 2019
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
references Aditya, A. y Acharyya, R. (2013). Export diversification, composition, and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country analysis. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 22(7), 959-992. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2011.619009
Arellano, M. y Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968
Arriaga Navarrete, R. y Landa Díaz, H. O. (2016). Competitividad del sector externo mexicano: un análisis de la condición Marshall-Lerner. Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas, 11 (1), 79-101. https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/78
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. y Wang, Y. (2006). The J curve: China versus her trading partners. Bulletin of Economic Research, 58(4), 323-343. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12175
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Hegerty, S. W. y Xu, J. (2013). Exchange-rate volatility and US-Hong Kong industry trade: is there evidence of a 'third country' effect? Applied Economics, 45(18), 2629-2651. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/twec.12521
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. y Saha, S. (2017). Asymmetric response of the US-India trade balance to exchange rate changes: Evidence from 68 industries. The World Economy, 40(10), 2226-2254. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0307-3378.2006.00247.x
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. y Harvey, H. (2018). The U.S. Trade balance with partners from developing world: An asymmetry analysis of the J-curve effect. Journal of Economic Development, 43(2), 29-43. https://pennstate.pure.elsevier.com/en/publications/the-us-trade-balance-with-partners-from-developing-world-an-asymm
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Harvey, H. y Hegerty, S. W. (2018). The real peso-dollar rate and US-Mexico industry trade: An asymmetric analysis. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 65(4), 350-389. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2012.654918
Baltagi, B. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data (3.a ed.). Chichester: Johnv Wiley & Sons.
Baltazar Escalona, J. C. y Ramos Escamilla, M. (2014). México: comercio exterior, producto y condición de Marshall-Lerner. Tiempo Económico, 27(9), 5-26. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.29436.54409
Bineau, Y. (2016). Real exchange rate and bilateral trade balance of Cambodia: A panel investigation. Economics Bulletin, 36(2), 895-900. https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-16-00075.html
Blanchard, E. J. y Olney, W. W. (2017). Globalization and human capital investment: Export composition drives educational attainment. Journal of International Economics, 106, 165-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.03.004
Blundell, R. y Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8
Botta, A. (2014). Structural asymmetries at the roots of the eurozone crisis: What's new for industrial policy in the EU? PSL Quarterly Review, 67(269), 169-216. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2420168
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Brissimis, S. N., Hondroyiannis, G., Papazoglou, C., Tsaveas, N. T y Vasardani, M. A. (2013). The determinants of current account imbalances in the euro area: A panel estimation approach. Economic Change and Restructuring, 46(3), 299-319. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-012-9129-0
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