Titulo:
¿Deuda pública insostenible en una unión fiscal europea?
.
Sumario:
Algunos miembros de la UE enfrentaron años de crisis en la primera mitad de la década de 2010 con una excesiva deuda pública inicial, pero varios otros tenían amplio margen para estímulos fiscales. Sin embargo, la prolongada duración de la depresión económica europea agotó los presupuestos públicos, debilitando las políticas de estímulo y la solvencia soberana. Mientras tanto, una de las formas de salir de la depresión es una centralización propuesta de la UE mediante una unión fiscal. ¿Están los países de la eurozona dispuestos a participar en un fondo de riesgo en las finanzas públicas? El estudio busca responder a esta pregunta. El artículo presenta la hipótesis de que la sostenibilidad de las finanzas públicas se deterioró durante la cr... Ver más
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¿Deuda pública insostenible en una unión fiscal europea? Unsustainable public debt in a european fiscal union? Algunos miembros de la UE enfrentaron años de crisis en la primera mitad de la década de 2010 con una excesiva deuda pública inicial, pero varios otros tenían amplio margen para estímulos fiscales. Sin embargo, la prolongada duración de la depresión económica europea agotó los presupuestos públicos, debilitando las políticas de estímulo y la solvencia soberana. Mientras tanto, una de las formas de salir de la depresión es una centralización propuesta de la UE mediante una unión fiscal. ¿Están los países de la eurozona dispuestos a participar en un fondo de riesgo en las finanzas públicas? El estudio busca responder a esta pregunta. El artículo presenta la hipótesis de que la sostenibilidad de las finanzas públicas se deterioró durante la crisis global y la crisis del euro en la mayoría de los países miembros de la eurozona y en la UE, lo cual desalienta a los países centrales de buscar la unión fiscal. El análisis utiliza los indicadores de sostenibilidad fiscal de Blanchard y la calificación de riesgo soberano de los países de EURO-18 y UE-28. El análisis presenta como resultados un resumen teórico de la sostenibilidad fiscal, el desarrollo de la sostenibilidad fiscal en los Estados miembros de la UE, los indicadores de convergencia o divergencia de sostenibilidad fiscal en la Comunidad y conclusiones basadas en los indicadores de la probabilidad de una unión fiscal. Some EU members faced years of crisis in the first half of the 2010s with an excessive initial public debt, but several others had broad room for fiscal stimulus. However, the prolonged duration of the European economic depression expended public budgets, while exhausting stimulus policies and sovereign solvency. Meanwhile, one of the ways out of depression is a proposed centralization of the EU through fiscal union. Are the eurozone countries ready to participate in a risk pool in public finances? The study seeks to answer this question. The article presents the hypothesis that the sustainability of public finances deteriorated during the global and euro crisis in the majority of the eurozone member countries and in the EU, and this phenomenon is discouraging the core countries from seeking the fiscal union. The analysis uses the Blanchard indicators of fiscal sustainability and the sovereign risk rating of the EURO-18 and EU-28 countries. The analysis presents as results a theoretical summary of fiscal sustainability, the development of fiscal sustainability in the EU member states, indicators of convergence or divergence of fiscal sustainability in the Community, and conclusions based on the indicators of the likelihood of a fiscal union. Kutasi, Gábor Fiscal sustainability Euro zone Sostenibilidad fiscal Eurozona Fiscal sustainability Euro zone 9 1 Artículo de revista Journal article 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z 2016-01-01 application/pdf text/html application/xml Universidad Católica de Colombia Revista Finanzas y Política Económica 2248-6046 2011-7663 https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/view/1337 10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2017.9.1.2 https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2017.9.1.2 eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Gábor Kutasi - 2017 25 39 Afonso, A., & Rault, C. (2010). What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU- A panel data diagnostic. Review of World Economics, 145(4), 731-755. Afonso, A., & Rault, C. (2015). Multi-step analysis of public finances sustainability. Economic Modelling, 48(8), 199-209. Afonso, A. (2000). Fiscal Policy Sustainability: Some Unpleasant European Evidence (August 2000). ISEG Working Paper, No. 12/2000/DE/CISEP Balassone, F., Cunha, J., Langenus, G., Manzke, B., Pavot, J., Prammer, D., & Tommasino P. (2008). Fiscal sustainability and policy implications for the euro area. Banque de France NER, 225. Barnhill, T M., & Kopits, G. (2003). Assessing fiscal sustainability under uncertainty. IMF Working Papers, 79. Barro, R. J. (2008). Macroeconomics: A modern approach. Thomson South-Western. Benczes, I. (2014) Intergovernmentalism versus Supranationalism. Challenges and Controversies in European Economic Governance. In I. Benczes (Ed.), Crisis in the West and the East. Economic Governance in Times of Challenge (pp. 59-73). Wien: Wiener Verlag. Benczes, I., & Kutasi G. (2010). Kõltségvetési pénzügyek. Hiány, államadósság és fenntarthatóság. Budapest: Akadémiai kiadó (Public finances: Deficit, public debt and sustainability). Beritella, M., & Zhang, J. (2015). Fiscal sustainability in the EU: From the short-term riskto the long-term challenge. Journal of Policy Modeling, 37(2), 261-280. Blanchard, O. J. (1990). Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators. OECD Working Papers, 79. Borgy, V., Laubach, T., Mésonnier, J-S., & Renne, J-P (2011). Fiscal Sustainability, Default Risk and Euro Area Sovereign Bond Spreads. Banque de France Document de Travail, 315. Buiter, W. H. (1985). Guide to public sector debt and deficits. Economic Policy, 1 (3), 13-79. Buiter, W. H., & Grafe, C. (2002). Patching up the Pact: Some Suggestions for Enhancing Fiscal Sustainability on Enlarged European Union. CEPR Discussion Paper, 3496. Chalk, N., & Hemming, R. (2000). Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice. IMF Working Papers, WP/00/81. Checherita-Westphal, C., Hughes Hallett, A., & Rother, IP (2014). Fiscal sustainability using growth-maximising debt targets. Applied Economics, 46(6), 638-647. Chen, S-W. (2014). Testing for Fiscal Sustainability: New evidence from the G-7 and Some European countries. Economic Modelling, 37(1), 1-15. Claeys, P (2007). Sustainability of EU Fiscal Policies: a Panel Test. Journal of Economic Integration, 22(1), 112-127. Cournède, B., & Gonand, F. (2008). Restoring Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Raise Taxes or Curb Spending? OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 520. Croce, E., & Juan-Ramon, V. H. (2003). Assessing fiscal sustainability: A cross-country comparison. IMF Working Papers, WP/03/145. De Grauwe, P. (2000). Economics of monetary union. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Delors Report. (1989). Report on Economic and Monetary Union in the European community. Committee for the Study of Economic and Monetary Union. European Commission. (2012). Fiscal Sustainability Report 2012. European Commission. Fatás, A., von Hagen, J., Hughes-Hallett, A., Strauch, R. R., & Sibert, A. (2003). Stability and Growth in Europe: Towards a Better Pact. CEPR, ZEI. Fuest, C., & Peichel, A. (2012). European fiscal union. What is it? Does it work? And are there really no alternatives? IZA Policy Paper, 39. Heinz, F. F., & Sun, Y. (2014). Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe—The Role of Global Risk Aversion, Economic Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Spillovers. IMF Working Papers, WP/14/17. Laubach, T (2011). Fiscal policy and interest rates: The role of sovereign default risk. In R. Clarida, & F. Giavazzi (Eds.), NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010 (pp. 7-29). Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. MacDougall Report. (1977). Report of the study group on the role of public finances in the European integration. Vol. 1. Brussels: Commission of the European Communities. Mankiw, N. G. (1997). Macroeconomics. 3rd edition. New York. McCallum, B. T (1984). Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis. Journal of Political Economy, 92(2), 123-135. Neaime, S. (2015). Sustainability of Budget Deficits and Public Debts in Selected Eropean Union Countries. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 12(1), 1-21. Tobin, J., & Buiter, W. (1976). Long-run effects of fiscal and monetary policy on aggregate demand. In J. L. Stein (Ed.), Monetarism, studies in monetary economics (pp. 273-309). Amsterdam: North-Holland. Trehan, B., & Walsh, C. E. (1988). Common Trends, The Government's Budget Constraint, and Revenue Smoothing. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 425-444. Zee, H. H. (1988). The sustainability and optimality of government debt. IMF Staff Papers, 35(4), 658-685. https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/1337/1270 https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/1337/2349 https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/1337/2089 info:eu-repo/semantics/article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1 http://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ART info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 Text Publication |
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UNIVERSIDAD CATÓLICA DE COLOMBIA |
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Revista Finanzas y Política Económica |
| title |
¿Deuda pública insostenible en una unión fiscal europea? |
| spellingShingle |
¿Deuda pública insostenible en una unión fiscal europea? Kutasi, Gábor Fiscal sustainability Euro zone Sostenibilidad fiscal Eurozona Fiscal sustainability Euro zone |
| title_short |
¿Deuda pública insostenible en una unión fiscal europea? |
| title_full |
¿Deuda pública insostenible en una unión fiscal europea? |
| title_fullStr |
¿Deuda pública insostenible en una unión fiscal europea? |
| title_full_unstemmed |
¿Deuda pública insostenible en una unión fiscal europea? |
| title_sort |
¿deuda pública insostenible en una unión fiscal europea? |
| title_eng |
Unsustainable public debt in a european fiscal union? |
| description |
Algunos miembros de la UE enfrentaron años de crisis en la primera mitad de la década de 2010 con una excesiva deuda pública inicial, pero varios otros tenían amplio margen para estímulos fiscales. Sin embargo, la prolongada duración de la depresión económica europea agotó los presupuestos públicos, debilitando las políticas de estímulo y la solvencia soberana. Mientras tanto, una de las formas de salir de la depresión es una centralización propuesta de la UE mediante una unión fiscal. ¿Están los países de la eurozona dispuestos a participar en un fondo de riesgo en las finanzas públicas? El estudio busca responder a esta pregunta. El artículo presenta la hipótesis de que la sostenibilidad de las finanzas públicas se deterioró durante la crisis global y la crisis del euro en la mayoría de los países miembros de la eurozona y en la UE, lo cual desalienta a los países centrales de buscar la unión fiscal. El análisis utiliza los indicadores de sostenibilidad fiscal de Blanchard y la calificación de riesgo soberano de los países de EURO-18 y UE-28. El análisis presenta como resultados un resumen teórico de la sostenibilidad fiscal, el desarrollo de la sostenibilidad fiscal en los Estados miembros de la UE, los indicadores de convergencia o divergencia de sostenibilidad fiscal en la Comunidad y conclusiones basadas en los indicadores de la probabilidad de una unión fiscal.
|
| description_eng |
Some EU members faced years of crisis in the first half of the 2010s with an excessive initial public debt, but several others had broad room for fiscal stimulus. However, the prolonged duration of the European economic depression expended public budgets, while exhausting stimulus policies and sovereign solvency. Meanwhile, one of the ways out of depression is a proposed centralization of the EU through fiscal union. Are the eurozone countries ready to participate in a risk pool in public finances? The study seeks to answer this question. The article presents the hypothesis that the sustainability of public finances deteriorated during the global and euro crisis in the majority of the eurozone member countries and in the EU, and this phenomenon is discouraging the core countries from seeking the fiscal union. The analysis uses the Blanchard indicators of fiscal sustainability and the sovereign risk rating of the EURO-18 and EU-28 countries. The analysis presents as results a theoretical summary of fiscal sustainability, the development of fiscal sustainability in the EU member states, indicators of convergence or divergence of fiscal sustainability in the Community, and conclusions based on the indicators of the likelihood of a fiscal union.
|
| author |
Kutasi, Gábor |
| author_facet |
Kutasi, Gábor |
| topic |
Fiscal sustainability Euro zone Sostenibilidad fiscal Eurozona Fiscal sustainability Euro zone |
| topic_facet |
Fiscal sustainability Euro zone Sostenibilidad fiscal Eurozona Fiscal sustainability Euro zone |
| topicspa_str_mv |
Sostenibilidad fiscal Eurozona Fiscal sustainability Euro zone |
| citationvolume |
9 |
| citationissue |
1 |
| publisher |
Universidad Católica de Colombia |
| ispartofjournal |
Revista Finanzas y Política Económica |
| source |
https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/view/1337 |
| language |
eng |
| format |
Article |
| rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Gábor Kutasi - 2017 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| references_eng |
Afonso, A., & Rault, C. (2010). What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU- A panel data diagnostic. Review of World Economics, 145(4), 731-755. Afonso, A., & Rault, C. (2015). Multi-step analysis of public finances sustainability. Economic Modelling, 48(8), 199-209. Afonso, A. (2000). Fiscal Policy Sustainability: Some Unpleasant European Evidence (August 2000). ISEG Working Paper, No. 12/2000/DE/CISEP Balassone, F., Cunha, J., Langenus, G., Manzke, B., Pavot, J., Prammer, D., & Tommasino P. (2008). Fiscal sustainability and policy implications for the euro area. Banque de France NER, 225. Barnhill, T M., & Kopits, G. (2003). Assessing fiscal sustainability under uncertainty. IMF Working Papers, 79. Barro, R. J. (2008). Macroeconomics: A modern approach. Thomson South-Western. Benczes, I. (2014) Intergovernmentalism versus Supranationalism. Challenges and Controversies in European Economic Governance. In I. Benczes (Ed.), Crisis in the West and the East. Economic Governance in Times of Challenge (pp. 59-73). Wien: Wiener Verlag. Benczes, I., & Kutasi G. (2010). Kõltségvetési pénzügyek. Hiány, államadósság és fenntarthatóság. Budapest: Akadémiai kiadó (Public finances: Deficit, public debt and sustainability). Beritella, M., & Zhang, J. (2015). Fiscal sustainability in the EU: From the short-term riskto the long-term challenge. Journal of Policy Modeling, 37(2), 261-280. Blanchard, O. J. (1990). Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators. OECD Working Papers, 79. Borgy, V., Laubach, T., Mésonnier, J-S., & Renne, J-P (2011). Fiscal Sustainability, Default Risk and Euro Area Sovereign Bond Spreads. Banque de France Document de Travail, 315. Buiter, W. H. (1985). Guide to public sector debt and deficits. Economic Policy, 1 (3), 13-79. Buiter, W. H., & Grafe, C. (2002). Patching up the Pact: Some Suggestions for Enhancing Fiscal Sustainability on Enlarged European Union. CEPR Discussion Paper, 3496. Chalk, N., & Hemming, R. (2000). Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice. IMF Working Papers, WP/00/81. Checherita-Westphal, C., Hughes Hallett, A., & Rother, IP (2014). Fiscal sustainability using growth-maximising debt targets. Applied Economics, 46(6), 638-647. Chen, S-W. (2014). Testing for Fiscal Sustainability: New evidence from the G-7 and Some European countries. Economic Modelling, 37(1), 1-15. Claeys, P (2007). Sustainability of EU Fiscal Policies: a Panel Test. Journal of Economic Integration, 22(1), 112-127. Cournède, B., & Gonand, F. (2008). Restoring Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Raise Taxes or Curb Spending? OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 520. Croce, E., & Juan-Ramon, V. H. (2003). Assessing fiscal sustainability: A cross-country comparison. IMF Working Papers, WP/03/145. De Grauwe, P. (2000). Economics of monetary union. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Delors Report. (1989). Report on Economic and Monetary Union in the European community. Committee for the Study of Economic and Monetary Union. European Commission. (2012). Fiscal Sustainability Report 2012. European Commission. Fatás, A., von Hagen, J., Hughes-Hallett, A., Strauch, R. R., & Sibert, A. (2003). Stability and Growth in Europe: Towards a Better Pact. CEPR, ZEI. Fuest, C., & Peichel, A. (2012). European fiscal union. What is it? Does it work? And are there really no alternatives? IZA Policy Paper, 39. Heinz, F. F., & Sun, Y. (2014). Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe—The Role of Global Risk Aversion, Economic Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Spillovers. IMF Working Papers, WP/14/17. Laubach, T (2011). Fiscal policy and interest rates: The role of sovereign default risk. In R. Clarida, & F. Giavazzi (Eds.), NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010 (pp. 7-29). Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. MacDougall Report. (1977). Report of the study group on the role of public finances in the European integration. Vol. 1. Brussels: Commission of the European Communities. Mankiw, N. G. (1997). Macroeconomics. 3rd edition. New York. McCallum, B. T (1984). Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis. Journal of Political Economy, 92(2), 123-135. Neaime, S. (2015). Sustainability of Budget Deficits and Public Debts in Selected Eropean Union Countries. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 12(1), 1-21. Tobin, J., & Buiter, W. (1976). Long-run effects of fiscal and monetary policy on aggregate demand. In J. L. Stein (Ed.), Monetarism, studies in monetary economics (pp. 273-309). Amsterdam: North-Holland. Trehan, B., & Walsh, C. E. (1988). Common Trends, The Government's Budget Constraint, and Revenue Smoothing. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 425-444. Zee, H. H. (1988). The sustainability and optimality of government debt. IMF Staff Papers, 35(4), 658-685. |
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